Light at the end of the Tunnel - An Exit Strategy for lockdown

[da miller]

timpson puts 2 fingers up to the rest of the country

who are closed within gov guide lines we are not out

of this by a long way and this is tory recklessness with people s

lives if 1 member of his staff gets ill i hope he will relies

how wrong this is

 

[Count Muppet]

We already had one die that must have caught it before we closed

[da miller]

as i said tory recklessness

[ponsaloti]

12 hours ago, petercoulson said:

I'm not sure what the fascination is with T re-opening shops (they could quite easily have left some open) but the Gov exemptions are Laundrettes & Dry Cleaners it doesn't specify on site services so they can open most shops if they felt like it but that would be very costly and almost certain to lose a lot of money while they can furlough staff instead plus increase the risk to staff - yes there's other costs that cannot be avoided but if you open a shop you have to do enough turnover to cover everything that's a risk.

Has anyone on here who comes under the Hardware exemption stayed open and has it been worth it?

I've been opening up in the mornings for  between 2 and 6 hours, 6 days a week since this started. No where near covered my cost's but my wife is furloughed from the shop so opening up has helped to keep us both sane.

On average I've probably done 3 jobs a day, usually for key workers. These range from cutting a key to repairing a nissan ignition plus a couple of lockouts and other bits and pieces.   Most of the shop jobs have been pre-arranged the day before. Customers have been told to come down to the shop between 9 and 10 the next morning. The customer area is usually around  4M x6M but I've moved a few things about so only one at a time can get in and they are trapped by the door. There's a 2  meter worktop on wheels separating us and I ask them to take the key off of the ring and drop it into a tupperware bowl. I give it a squirt and a wipe and cut the key. Reverse procedure on the way out. Take the money and wash my hands and have a wipe down. Not good on the hands but I'll come up with a better way this week.

 I I've had a couple of days where I've had no calls or customers thru the door. This is giving me a chance to get rid of the crap I've collected over the last 12 or so years.  Not overly fussed about the money  but I wouldn't be able to sleep if a key worker asked me to help and I said no.

I'm ordering 25mm easyfix ali box section and perspex tomorrow. Hopefully the 5M counter will be safer by the end of the week.

Personally  I think this war is going to change everything. Apart from the financial side of things , the mental health problems are going to be massive. It also shows how fragile our society is. There's an awful lot of people that are bolloxed if they dont work for a month. The flash cars have to go back along with the rented overpriced flats. I think we may come around to some sort of new normality in maybe a year or so.

But then again, Trump might be right about Domestos

 

[petercoulson]

Interesting @ponsaloti thank you for the input

[ponsaloti]

11 hours ago, petercoulson said:

Interesting @ponsaloti thank you for the input

Should of made it clear, I dont do shoes.

[petercoulson]

21 minutes ago, ponsaloti said:

Should of made it clear, I dont do shoes.

That's ok I don't believe shoe repair will be top of anyone's shopping list and we are heading into a quiet period traditionally that's what's very worrying. 

[petercoulson]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52438693

[ironplanet uk900]

We've had a company in to quote us on perspex screens all round our counters. 

Which we will have in place before we reopen.

[petercoulson]

An announcement today, with 100% loan guarantee (up to £50000) the banks should be more willing and the package as I looked into it is a good way of borrowing money at the moment particularly if you had a project in mind before, interest paid first 12 months and no payments until the 13th month.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8261587/Small-businesses-50-000-loans-100-government-guarantees.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK

[St.Am92]

8 hours ago, ironplanet uk900 said:

We've had a company in to quote us on perspex screens all round our counters. 

Which we will have in place before we reopen.

What  thickness of perspex are they recommending? 

[petercoulson]

11 minutes ago, St.Am92 said:

What  thickness of perspex are they recommending? 

There shouldn't be a recommended thickness it's just a barrier so anything in theory will be ok - even cling film regularly changed will be effective https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/north-wales-shopkeepers-novel-way-17954756

p.s. don't forget to clean the screens on a regular basis

[ponsaloti]

I was offered 0.5mm, 2mm or 3mm.

Because of some of the sizes I need (1200x900), I'm going with 2mm.

0.5mm would be fine for smaller panels.

 

[petercoulson]

My latest ramblings but some nasty figures to consider - it's general stuff about people getting restless not necessarily business oriented but ammunition to consider

 

Getting Bored? Think it’s safe?

We are at the end of the beginning.

 

Think it’s safe now we’ve had a few weeks isolation, getting itchy feet to get back to business? Well it may seem we have peaked and hopefully we have but everyone has to be careful about how we exit in the coming weeks and take note of history learning from it. With health officials warning that the virus may last until a vaccine is found, the threat of a second wave of infections is forcing ministers to tread cautiously on lifting lockdown measures. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the example of Germany, where new cases of Covid-19 rose after some social distancing restrictions were relaxed, showed the risk Britain faced.

 

“A second spike would be harmful to public health and would result in many more deaths,” he said at a press conference from 10 Downing Street. “It’s vital we proceed carefully.”

 

“This virus will absolutely come back,” he said. “We have to be extremely sure-footed and extremely painstaking about this.”

 

Let’s look at what’s happening here in the UK, hear people saying the death rate is normal for the time of year just from a different cause? Let’s look at the figures from the Office for National Statistics, if you look at deaths since 1st January 2020 there is roughly a 20% increase but break that down and look at the graph attached. Week 13 is lockdown and from there deaths have risen enormously to double the amount in week to 17th April and recent records are being broken - frightening. So although the infection rate has slowed deaths have increased we mustn’t be complacent.

 

Week 16 (to 17th April) - 11,854 more deaths than the five-year average of 10,497

 

‘Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it’

 

The flu pandemic of 1918 was horrific and far worse for many reasons but the pattern shows us to be very careful, all those complaining about lockdown need to stop and think.

In the US Spanish-flu infections seemed to dwindle by November 1918, and the city of San Francisco relaxed lockdown orders. When another wave hit the city, much of the public — including "The Anti-Mask League" — resisted the mandates that city leaders reenacted to help blunt the spread of the disease. The city ended up with nearly 45,000 cases and over 3,000 reported deaths in the 2nd wave far worse than the first wave.

 

• San Francisco received national praise for its early, proactive response to the Spanish flu pandemic in the fall of 1918.
• But when the number of cases tapered off by November 1918, the city relaxed restrictions on the public too early, ultimately leaving San Francisco with one of the highest death rates in the US by the spring of 1919.
• As another pandemic grips the city a century later, San Francisco's past decision-making could provide the best guidance for sheltered-in-place residents on keeping the coronavirus disease at bay: Be patient.

[k4mrc]

Here’s mine - £110 includes another two larger signs and a screen.

[ponsaloti]

The flu that killed 50 million netflix.

A Must watch.

[Auto Key Wizard]

On 4/30/2020 at 3:40 PM, petercoulson said:

look at the graph attached

I'm I missing something?

The graph shows an increased mortality after Lockdown, Would the figure have been less without Lockdown? or maybe Herd Immunity would have altered things!

[Mick Friend]

7 hours ago, Auto Key Wizard said:

I'm I missing something?

The graph shows an increased mortality after Lockdown, Would the figure have been less without Lockdown? or maybe Herd Immunity would have altered things!

Yes they always said the infection rate will rise- they do 100,000 tests and still 6000 test posative each day -if those 6000 infect 6000 .... the lead time between contracting and dying is 14-28 days for some so while deaths are 'falling' there are still 6/700 a day - I think the herd immunity thing would have taken us over 100,000 deaths I certainly would not survive neither would my wife, most of my neighbours as well

[petercoulson]

8 hours ago, Auto Key Wizard said:

I'm I missing something?

The graph shows an increased mortality after Lockdown, Would the figure have been less without Lockdown? or maybe Herd Immunity would have altered things!

I think it's the knock on effect, the infection rate has headed the other way now, add into the mix routine hospital stuff was stopped and the fact people don't want to go to hospital in case they expose themselves to more risk meaning they leave it too late (particularly heart related illness) - hope we will see the death rate decline soon

[rapidlocks]

a rush to ease and release lockdown can be a bad thing , germany now considering locking down again after seeing a 2nd wave , all the pressure to ease things and if they do and it goes tits up its their bad decision , its a damned if you do and damned if you dont scenario for any government , if they dont ease things then economy suffers more people slate them , if they ease the lockdown and give the masses what they want and we get a deadly second wave then they put economy before the peoples health and slated and damned for this too , so lose lose for the decision makers.

[Mick Friend]

I fear the second spike - Spanish flu killed 3 million first wave 50 million the second wave- we are more refined now, better communications, well fed people so pray to the tin gods we dont  get that spike

 

[ponsaloti]

Troops returning home at the end of ww1 had a massive contribution to the 2nd wave. Some of them took more than 10 weeks to get home

Thank god the uk test's anyone that crosses our border. Plus this island is nowhere near congested as it was in 1918.

 

[Flash]

18 hours ago, Mick Friend said:

I fear the second spike - Spanish flu killed 3 million first wave 50 million the second wave- we are more refined now, better communications, well fed people so pray to the tin gods we dont  get that spike

 

We should all start getting concerned now, Mick Friend is getting worried so it must be serious......

[Flash]

2 hours ago, ponsaloti said:

Troops returning home at the end of ww1 had a massive contribution to the 2nd wave. Some of them took more than 10 weeks to get home

Thank god the uk test's anyone that crosses our border. Plus this island is nowhere near congested as it was in 1918.

 

What was the population of the U.K. in 2018,?  just curios.

[petercoulson]

14 minutes ago, Flash said:

What was the population of the U.K. in 2018,?  just curios.

very roughly 1918 - 42,000,000     2018 - 63,000,000