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Light at the end of the Tunnel - An Exit Strategy for lockdown


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i cant believe we still have so many protesting for an end to lock down , and so many more who believe the whole pandemic to be a hoax , end lockdown measures too soon and the death rate will get out of control , look at germany , eased lock down as had good figures and now the 2nd wave is hitting and they are considering locking down again.

if this is relaxed too much too soon we will see a huge chunk of the older generation wiped out as well as many with underlying conditions across the generations , no ones right to mingle is worth what would follow .

as much as i would like things back to nearer normal , i dont want this at any cost and damn the consequences.

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The flattening of the curve just means you will catch this at some point (just not now)

the people who are most susceptible to this should be in lockdown and the rest of us healthy muthafukkas should be carrying on with all the social distancing.

There’s a bit of me scared of the hype in the news but a large bit of me thinks it is way over the top.
Let’s  say it’s as bad as they say it is nothing is going to stop it in the next 18 months (assuming they can get a vaccine) so that means everyone “lives” in fear so we are fukked! What is it they say, the cure cannot be worse than the  disease ?

At what point do we decide enough is enough. It’s got to the point where curtain twitchers are phoning the police on people going about their “own” business. Let the police decide who should be out or not ??? 


Herd immunity is a horrible phrase but truth be told it’s the only thing that makes sense as long as we look after the frail,infirm and the sick.

I don’t see why the race or legal status of anyone in this country should be mentioned in this “fight” against whatever it is we are fighting against.

Its like the brexit saga tell us the fukkin truth and let us decide what we should do

FREEDOM !

if anyone mentions Mr Icke yer getting blocked !!

 

carry on!

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12 minutes ago, hibsjo(SCO) said:

the people who are most susceptible to this should be in lockdown

Everyone I know who is most vulnerable are, my mum has received a letter saying other than carers for her husband she is to have no contact with anyone until September so if I get to visit I have to stand outside unfortunately but we are both very aware of the risks and won't do anything against the advice.

14 minutes ago, hibsjo(SCO) said:

It’s got to the point where curtain twitchers are phoning the police

Hmm that's one of the reasons Vietnam has been so successful in containing the virus but that's how communism works completely different culture and mentality

15 minutes ago, hibsjo(SCO) said:

I don’t see why the race or legal status of anyone in this country should be mentioned in this

I was thinking that,  but under the radar and news there are still many many migrants crossing the Channel and seemingly untested which makes absolutely no sense at all - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8199653/More-migrants-stopped-trying-cross-English-Channel-not-tested-coronavirus.html

 

 

 

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Speculation but follows the lines of other countries exits -

The United Kingdom has drawn up a three-stage plan to ease the coronavirus lockdown that was first imposed at the end of March, The Times newspaper said.

The government must review the lockdown by May 7 but Prime Minister Boris Johnson has made clear that he is worried about triggering a second deadly spike in cases. Johnson is expected to set out a plan for exiting the lockdown on Sunday.

The first phase will involve small shops reopening alongside outdoor workplaces and the second will involve large shopping centres reopening, with more people encouraged to go into work, The Times said.

Pubs, restaurants, hotels and leisure centres will be among the last to open, the newspaper said.

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On 4/30/2020 at 3:40 PM, petercoulson said:

 

Screen Shot 2020-04-30 at 11.50.28.png

So the latest (to 1st May anyway) statistics are out and it shows the deaths are falling in line with the lockdown timings but equally how carefully the exit needs managing and constantly checking we are still way over the 5 yr average

Screen Shot 2020-05-12 at 22.26.56.png

 

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Another long one, sorry :)

 

 

When to open?

 

Yes the rules aren’t specific but I can see (forget all the news hype) that the government intention is for people to take some responsibility to use common sense (ok that’s dangerous for some) but with guidance around when to become normal again. We ask when can shoe repair shops open? Well in theory you could have stayed open as some have under the hardware banner but if you haven’t or didn’t think you could then Step 2 on 1st June is the time to plan for.

 

 

From gov.uk recovery strategy 

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy

 

To aid planning, the Government’s current aim is that the second step will be made no earlier than Monday 1 June, subject to these conditions being satisfied. Until that time the restrictions currently in place around the activities below will continue. The Government will work with the devolved administrations to ensure that the changes for step two and beyond are coordinated across the UK. 

 

Opening non-essential retail 

 

When and where it is safe to do so, and subject to those retailers being able to follow the new COVID-19 Secure guidelines. The intention is for this to happen in phases from 1 June; the Government will issue further guidance shortly on the approach that will be taken to phasing, including which businesses will be covered in each phase and the timeframes involved. All other sectors that are currently closed, including hospitality and personal care, are not able to re-open at this point because the risk of transmission in these environments is higher. The opening of such sectors is likely to take place in phases during step three, as set out below.

 

 

But, and this is a big but, you don’t have to if you don’t feel comfortable or have other reasons for wanting not to, there are many factors involved. Will you open and get less than you are now? For instance are you furloughed and coming off will be costly? Do you have vulnerable people at home that you may be putting at risk? Are you at risk yourself?

 

If and when you decide to go back you must ensure you are working safely during Covid-19 for which there is an excellent read here PLEASE PLEASE READ ALL OF THIS AND ITS’ LINKS - https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/shops-and-branches

 

A little snippet and something I have been saying all along about PPE but masks in particular

 

When managing the risk of COVID-19, additional PPE beyond what you usually wear is not beneficial. This is because COVID-19 is a different type of risk to the risks you normally face in a workplace, and needs to be managed through social distancing, hygiene and fixed teams or partnering, not through the use of PPE

 

Unless you are in a situation where the risk of COVID-19 transmission is very high, your risk assessment should reflect the fact that the role of PPE in providing additional protection is extremely limited. However, if your risk assessment does show that PPE is required, then you must provide this PPE free of charge to workers who need it. Any PPE provided must fit properly

 

If you decide to use a mask please don’t buy medical masks and start thinking they will be better, unless you get FP3 or above and have them properly fit tested they are no better than wrapping a scarf around your face plus there are others that need those medical masks and find supply dwindling. A good alternative are those buffy neck warmers used by motorcyclists multi purpose, comfortable and breathable or if you want to make your own - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/how-to-wear-and-make-a-cloth-face-covering/how-to-wear-and-make-a-cloth-face-covering.

 

 

Through all of this though think first of your employees and yourself - be safe and if you don’t believe you can be yet then don’t do it.

 

Attached is ideas for a risk assessment

RACovid.zip

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I have just spoken to our local health environment officer and he has said we are classed as a retail outlet and NOT allowed to open.

He did say we may cut keys but only if we served them from the front door using social distancing measures. 
 

We are 100% not allowed to have customers inside the shop.

 

 

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55 minutes ago, grahamparker said:

Get some screwdrivers, hammers, spanners for sale and your DIY. Problem solved.

  • Makes no difference with us as we are registered as RETAIL with the council , he said the police have a list of non essential business in the town and we are on that. ](*,)
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I know I keep posting depressing death graphs but the latest one shows the trend is definitely going the right way to 8th May which was the week leading up to the "relaxed" restrictions before the next set of exit strategy on 1st June so the figures over the coming weeks I believe will show how much we can relax we should see weeks 15 and 23 May going down it will be the ones for next week that will be the ones to look out for

 

Screen Shot 2020-05-19 at 18.37.13.png

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I suspect a spike. I live 60m from the Sea, the beach here is not easily accesible as it is a private estate, no parking and both holiday camps each side are shut -BUT - 1 mile away there is on road public parking, on sat/sun last the beach was rammed, the road packed and many overnight vans, motorhomes etc- The toilets are closed and the fast food outlets remain closed - if this is a sample then were in for some nasty shocks

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Since opening i have many reports from customers stating they think they have already had the virus in January, February and some even claim as far back as November and December.

None of these have had tests.

If this proves to be the case then it is possible millions of people have actually already had the virus as the symptoms don't lead to death for everyone and are also not as severe for everyone.

I myself am still  99% sure (until anti body tested) me and the wife have had the virus as we had nearly every symptom and it took me 6 weeks to get my strength back after the pain in my body subsided. My wife who is a district nurse has applied to get the anti body test as she is on the front line and should be at the front of the queue. Over the next few months i believe the ammount of positive test will be way beyond most peoples calculations.

In Lincolnshire we have not been heavily hit and our death rate is not far from where it would be in any normal year so the public in my area don't really seem to be that bothered about it anymore. My mum and Dad visited a large garden centre on Monday against my wishes but as my dad said "i have been locked up for nearly 3 months and my garden is my life, i am 78 and had a good life and if the virus kills me then so be it" and i am getting friends of mine who have parents in there 70/80's saying exactly the same.

As the weather gets better more and more will start to travel to beaches/parks and woodlands as long as social distancing is carried out then i think it is the only way we will get the country moving again. London and the tubes/trains and buses will obviously always be an issue but it we are all careful continue to wash hands and stay 2 metres apart we could keep the spread under control.

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4 minutes ago, grahamparker said:

Since opening i have many reports from customers stating they think they have already had the virus in January, February and some even claim as far back as November and December.

None of these have had tests.

If this proves to be the case then it is possible millions of people have actually already had the virus as the symptoms don't lead to death for everyone and are also not as severe for everyone.

I am absolutely sure this is the case, one of my volunteer colleagues had both covid and anti body test last week even though he is fit and well without any illness (the local hospital arranged the test because of the volunteering he is doing) and was absolutely staggered the anti body test was positive (covid negative) he now remembers being unwell early in the year but only very mildly and still went to work. I also know of many others now saying they had been a little unwell with symptoms we now associate with covid so unless the tests are unreliable then many millions have had it as you say. 

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My eldest is a professional footballer (until June!! :( ) and back in November/December he had a prolific cough that went on for weeks, with a number of others at the football club having different symptoms now linked to Covid. 

Could've been going on longer than thought!!

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