3 weeks & nothing

[Lee]

3 weeks in and with all the support promises I’ve not seen a penny of help as yet (put in a grant application last Sunday, which should come any day) for tax efficiency I pay myself a small wage and dividends so the 80% thing is going to be small change. 
I’m a Boris fan and appreciate this is all unpresidented and thankfully I could easily go a year without the shop open but there must be many a business on the brink. I heard Duncan Banatine on TV today saying his rents and interest alone was 5 million a month & he rather calmly said “you can’t pay that for long, you either close the business or open the business” the bigger they are the harder they fall!

[Auto Key Wizard]

On 4/13/2020 at 9:42 AM, Lee said:

Duncan Banatine on TV today saying his rents and interest alone was 5 million a month

But he is a millionaire!

Why would he be paying rents and interest?

Not a clever businessman when the shit hits the fan, Eh...

[grahamparker]

Like many millionaires in this country they are mostly paper millionaires only. They spend more than they should to make more money then moan when they come unstuck. Problem is it’s always the employees that suffer the most.

[petercoulson]

3 hours ago, Auto Key Wizard said:

But he is a millionaire!

Why would he paying rents and interest?

Not a clever businessman when the shit hits the fan, Eh...

Quite possibly he's the landlord.........

[x minit uk]

So how long realistically do we think we will be locked down. ?

[MarkD]

My initial thought was 3 months minimum and there's been nothing to change my mind so far.

[Flash]

13 minutes ago, x minit uk said:

1 minute ago, MarkD said:

My initial thought was 3 months minimum and there's been nothing to change my mind so far.

I think you're spot on, but it will never get back to normal. 

[rapidlocks]

i think depending on results they will relax some restrictions in mid to end of may and this will continues over the following month until the 2nd expected peak comes , i think many will be back to work at end of june/july , but there will still be social distancing and i dont think we will have mass gatherings or pubs open at this time , i think it will be september/october before we reach this stage if lucky .

only a working vacine will speed up the return to normality , and if this virus mutates we could be battling it for years to come 

the hospitality trade sports and holiday trades will be worst hit and will be the last to see lockdown relaxed , as until on top of the virus any mass gatherings could take us back to the start , and then by the time it is relaxed and we get taxed to hell to pay for it , no one will be able to afford holidays and the pub , im more concerned about what follows than the virus .

[petercoulson]

Like @rapidlocks the worry isn't how long this goes on it's when it's deemed over, we are all more or less going to be starting from scratch again and to build a business properly takes a long time then there will be paying back for the next 5-10 years.

It's no comfort but the NHS and hospitals will be looking at a likely peak in August with the repercussions of the virus to people's health even if it is peaking now

[rapidlocks]

its not just the starting from scratch again , its going to be a very different normal .

taxes are likely to rise for those that still have jobs , unemployment is likely to rise , there will be alot less in peoples pockets to spend , this has to impact high streets and online sales , for auto locksmiths there will be a rise in cheap online messers doing cheap keys cash in hand to top up benefits .

social distancing is likely to remain for a long while or until a vacination is found .

If what is true of china and i suspect italy and spain , due to lockdown there has been a sharp rise in anxiety , mental health and conditions such as ptsd , this will be the next major cost that will need to be met and will hit the already battle weary NHS and i would not be surprised if this affects many nhs staff badly .

governments will want to blame someone , china is the favourite with usa being in election year trump will want someone to deflect blame on and unite the country against a common enemy and hide or ignore his own failings , or maybe hes far too sane for this .

relaxing lockdown is only stage 1 , i believe it will be a new normal and not a pleasant period , i suspect taking years to return to anything like the old normal with many restrictions still in place long term such as large public gatherings and the like .

saw on tv this morning that at present only around 12 to 15% of the population have contracted covid-19 so far , this is of course low and the true figure will be alot higher , however with the majority still vulnerable to catching this they need restrictions to manage the impact on the nhs until the majority have survived this , or a magic vacine is found .

[ponsaloti]

2 hours ago, rapidlocks said:

 

If what is true of china and i suspect italy and spain , due to lockdown there has been a sharp rise in anxiety , mental health and conditions such as ptsd , this will be the next major cost that will need to be met and will hit the already battle weary NHS and i would not be surprised if this affects many nhs staff badly .

Seeing this already. Over reacting, under reacting. People walking around the town wearing crash helmets. People screaming at one another, others fighting and rolling around on the floor while queuing to get into iceland. There's a lot of lonely frightened people out there and they're only going to get lonelier and more frightened. 

The effect on someone who looses a relative or friend and cant say goodbye or attend a funeral can be massive. I lost my mum and dad within 3 months of one another about 4 years ago. I'm quite a strong person but I have no clue how that would of affected me if it had been in these times. Some wont be able to cope with it.

There's a lot that aren't taking this seriously because, to them, its not real. They dont know anyone (yet) who's died from the virus.

I lived just outside of Philadelphia 1986-89. At that the time the Aids virus was rampant in and around the philly area. Male and female were being infected, especially amongst single people. I was a single heterosexual english man being paid well, driving around in some very nice motors. I was having a good time but when I realised what the situation was, It changed my behaviour in a big way. Every one I drank with or worked with, knew someone who either had aids, or had died of aids. This makes it very real very quickly.

Until this happens here, a lot of people wont being changing there behaviour for a while.

My gut feeling is that in a few months time the general consensus will be, "we're over the worst". I dont think we will be. I think there will be a second surge due to NHS and other key workers dropping out of there rolls thru fatigue plus complacency amongst the general public .

I Bastard hope I'm wrong but I think this could go on for a very long time.

I think we will have a new normal, hopefully a better one.

 

ps. Wifey is furloughed and I'm opening the shop for a couple of hours in the morning (by appointment only) and covering emergencies. Applied for the grant last week. Monies went into the bank yesterday.